A ban on new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars
A ban on the sale of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars is to be brought forward to 2035, the government has just announced.
That’s just 15 years away! Now it probably won’t have that a significant effect on my life but its made me think. The first motorhome I bought 25 years ago is still on the road and it really depreciated in value very little in the five years I had it but what of those we buy now? Also, this decision surely will immediately have a profound influence on the leisure industry I would think, particularly the caravan and motor caravan sector. Any thoughts?
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Unless you assume that battery technology is going to improve significantly (say, twice the power density at half of the cost) it seems far to ambitious a target. It’s not just cars and motorhomes but lorries, large vans etc. Then there is the problem of charging which needs a massive investment including street chargers and very large banks of “super chargers” at frequent public locations.
I love my i3 but to go from 1.5% market penetration to 100% in 15 years doesn’t seem realistic.
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I did not hear the associated announcement that the necessary supporting infrastructure, will be put in place in time by the government.
Which ever way it goes technically as I feel that is far from known, battery or generation onboard from hydrogen or some new yet to be discovered zero carbon energy source.
Or is it still thought it can be done simply with crocodile clips off the street lighting?
On TV someone commented on it being a challenge to the car makers to do the vehicles, I feel the powers to be first need to decide the technology, how it is implemented, and by whom. That challenge IMO is in another league to the one asked of the vehicle makers.
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So I guess in the light of this legislation, this segment of the leisure industry will now need to be refocusing its medium term plans. But what vision and action would be required to maintain or grow market share for the club? Well my guess is that (a) sites will have to have a significant number of charging points.
(b)The introduction of more pod and other site based accommodation will be required.Now, here in my opinion is where the club is at an advantage, it’s not just one site it’s a network of sites dotted throughout the country. May be ‘it’ should consider purchasing sites in areas it currently has no coverage and so improve the national network coverage of sites so that you are never more than 100 miles from a site. This way touring in our electric vehicles will be made much easier.
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I think this could have a terrific impact on CLs either in terms of demand for electricity or in a huge decline in business. I’ve no doubt that some will not survive.
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With present technology it isn’t possible to produce a realistically priced car capable of towing 1800kg ditto a motorhome. I am sure that lorries would be exempt but that raises all sorts of issues. Also, what about vans - courier services, delivery vehicles etc.? Maybe Hydrogen, but it’s early days for that and there is almost no refuelling infrastructure. It’s a big leap to assume that the technology will develop fast enough.
The target is admirable but totally unrealistic.
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"Well my guess is that (a) sites will have to have a significant number of charging points."
So, there is already a presumption the solution will be with recharging of electrical energy storage based vehicles?
Personally, with the infrastructure challenges, physically and finacially, particularly with the streets of terranced dwellings and multistory dwellings IMO the route will have to be other than via recharge vehicle technology. That I feel is a stop gap till a few minutes refuelling as opposed to recharging comes viable, something like now requiring a limited infrastructure of energy boosting stations, much like our forecourts. Somewhere to go to get a boost rather than hoping to recharge countless vehicle per street of carpark.
Presently hydrogen used via a fuel cell could be a contender, or we could hope to find another energy boosting technology for the onboard supply of electricity.
Sorting what route we and ideally the world should go seems the first decision needing standising before winding up electric vehicle production going off down blind alleys.
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Posted on 4 / 2 / 2020 17:36
I'm a little confused on this subject hmm ( Not difficult I hear you muttering
) but whats going to happen to all those dirty stinking ICE vehicles that are going to be superceded ? Traded in at 10th value for a new energy source vehicle ? Then left to trundle round the various " Ring Roads " unloved and unserviced or just run into the ground until the scrap man cometh ??Just wondering
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I always thought it was too soon to jump in with both feet. No one has said ICE cars and hybrids have to be scrapped and I doubt anyone has bought a car recently expecting it to last 15-20 years so I don’t think special thoughts are needed.
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No Tinners they won't last the 15 -- 20 years you mention, nor I doubt will yours truly
! But now the target date has been set and more recently reduced please don't think the ICE will be allowed to continue in existence smoking and polluting away merrily { despite what the facts may or may not say!! }0 -
The charge to get everyone to have an EV is going to involve massive infrastructure expenditure,,and it is already causing big headaches,in other sectors ,i have today received my monthly railway magazine (in paper package for first time!!) there is a very interesting article about the problems, that the railway companies are having trying to introduce new rolling stock on already electrified lines, that have not the power capacity for the very power hungry latest trains,and it could be 2025/30 before it may be possible as there needs to be millions spent for the power companies to be able to supply the power,
The latest trains on the LNER route from KX are having to use their diesel engines in some areas ,and the new trains on the Trans Pennine route have to use their diesel engines north of Berwick on Tweed as there is not the power capacity for them to run in electric mode
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Its not about todays vehicles, or those existing at the cut off point.
It is all about vehicles from that date on and it seems that HM govt.are hoping that technology improvements will have rendered todays vehicles obsolete. Possibly to the extent that the train lines will have been updated to cope with the demand.
I certainly hope so although I will not be around to see the chaos.
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It is the Power Supplies that need far more expenditure in the near future to be able to cope with what will be required that at the moment is woefully inadequate to cope with what we really need now ,they admit at peak times now it is a knife edge scenario.
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We seem to be focussing on the vehicles, although the legislation is aimed at cars, but has anyone any suggestions as to how the Club, and the leisure industry in general, should/must change as a result of this legislation. I've put my suggestions forward regarding the caravan sector but I would be very interested in the thoughts of others.
As sure as eggs is eggs the club will have to react to this and as we know, even a name change caused much angst so what of this?
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Maybe the growth in other forms of accomodation on club sites and a lot of others in the, as now, touring site companies,will be what the future may be,but then one german company is experimenting with an electric assist caravan,with re gen braking to help keep battery charged that can be towed by smaller (legislation required?) and batterv powered vans are already out there,just as posted needs massive infrastructure to cope with it all
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There are a number of quite creative ideas for managing the grid and distribution. Small charging points can have a battery bank topped up by solar power to give battery to battery charging. Cars can act as energy stores and supply power back to the grid at peak times. The problem is that these concepts are not well developed and 15 years is a comparatively short timeframe. For now, we at least have off peak charging capability (but only with a few suppliers). I charge my car overnight at 5p per unit. There’s a long way to go.
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+ 1 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
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We can and should but what is of interest to us fellow members is the impact of the legislation on us, our pastime and our club. Afterall, the club don't fly planes.
Yes, the issue of planes needs addressing but it's probably just a tad beyond the remit of CT.
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It was mentioned on a programme today that although more people will be wanting to fly in the future the airline industry are confident? they will be able to "offset?" any pollution that they create? and we are expected to believe that
if i look up from our garden at home (we are sometimes)there is always from about 0600 to midnight at least one passenger or freight aircraft in view and one evening a couple of weeks ago there were nine aircraft going into and out of the 4 airfields that we are on the flight paths of , all "offsetting?" their pollution,?
plus the international space station on its orbit
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DD Like most statistics one can use them to show what one wants and depending on source. Whilst it is true aircraft are in terms of total emissions fairly low globally. One source put it at 3%. This is just down to total numbers. Hence the reason it makes sense to tackle the huge number of ICE automobiles.
However, if you were just going to Edinburgh
A Boeing 747 uses 7840kg of aviation fuel for the take-off, climb and descent portions of the flight and these account for about 250km. For journeys longer than that, the plane will use 10.1kg for each additional kilometre under typical cruising conditions. So to fly from Heathrow to Edinburgh (530km) uses 10,668kg of fuel, which releases a little over 33 tonnes of CO2.
Whereas a Ford Mondeo 1.8 TDCi emits 151g of CO2 per km and covers 650km to reach Edinburgh. That works out to be 98kg for a single passenger, compared to 79kg per person for the Jumbo, assuming it carries its full complement of 416 passengers. But you could drive 336 cars to Edinburgh for the same CO2 as one plane.
It therefore depends how full the plane is and how many are in the cars, as the CO2 generated does not increase much wether the car has one passenger or is full.
Clearly someone taking their two / three week holiday in the USA is going to generate substantially more CO2. Than someone taking their car to a hotel in Cornwall. I think this is why there is so much hype re air travel.
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What we really need to address is energy generation. We are surrounded by water yet tidal, which is regular and not reliant on weather, is scarcely used. Same with rivers. All those weirs that could could use the energy available. Why are new buildings erected without solar roofs as a requirement of planning approval? We aren't really serious are we?
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Have I got it wrong ? As I understand it it is the sale of new petrol or diesel vehicles being banned after 2035. Sale of second hand vehicles won't be banned unless the goal posts are changed again on a whim by the government.
That means that until, I would suggest, 2045 at the very least, there will be these vehicles on the road. These will not be the heavy polluting type as, by then, they will probably all be at least Euro 6 standard with very much reduced emissions. That is at least 25 years from now. Yes, they may be taxed heavily but it may also be that the prices of these vehicles, new or second hand, become lower which may offset the higher tax. One thing for sure, it won't affect me by then.
Yes, I'm all for cleaner air but I don't think that with today's technology even being developed at the rate it is we have a chance in hell of achieving what is proposed. By then other methods of propulsion will have been invented and electric vehicles will be castigated in the same way that the much vaunted diesel engines, only a few years ago, now are.
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