Corona Virus Concerns
Comments
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Don't worry Tinwheeler. I have got your message loud and clear. I wont be visiting anytime soon. Nice to know that you accept us when things are better, even though it impacts in a bad way on the lives of every local person. By the way, I am sure people who live in cities know what it's like to be overrun with swarms of people most of the time, not just at popular times.
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So the people from London, the Midlands and other areas where they have had a very high rate of infection will come here.
does anyone actually know the R value for each county or area?
ive never heard it mentioned on the tv briefings....a 'range' yes, but no specific values for the UK and certainly not at a more granular level.
agreed, actual total numbers of infections will be higher in, say, London than the South West but following the marked drop in the London infections curve, surely their 'rate' is slowing faster than anywhere else?
due to population/proximity everything about their 'profile' has been magnified....rate of climb, numbers of infections and rate of descent.
its like comparing a racing car to a std saloon.....the racing car takes off much faster, its top speed is much higher and its slowing down is also far better....
perhaps someone has some accurate R levels by county/area?
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"Crowded shops and car parks and traffic jams become a daily feature and make moving around difficult."
isnt that exactly like living in a city? i guess most are fully accostomed to experiencing that type of environment...
its the locals that see the large change, not the visitors.
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"agreed, actual total numbers of infections will be higher in, say, London than the South West but following the marked drop in the London infections curve, surely their 'rate' is slowing faster than anywhere else?"
In the context of this discussion, I think it is definitely the numbers that count. The very same numbers that may visit other areas.
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Strangely enough I read that Barrow in Furness had the highest per capita rate of infection, right on the edge of the Lakes, in fact the top three places for the infection are in the north west. We just don't know enough at the moment to consider travel on any scale. Let's hope some progress in understanding this disease begins to emerge sooner rather than later.
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That’s pretty obvious but wasn't my point. I’m not talking about cities where the infrastructure is geared to cope with large numbers of people and traffic but rural areas where roads and facilities are not.
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that's odd....the rolling 'strapline' at the bottom of the Coronavirus Update briefing says that A&E attendance and admission figures are the lowest on record.
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It means more than 99.5% of the country are not infected👍🏻. If my mental maths still work🤷🏻♂️
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I’m afraid you have misunderstood my message, Compo. See my other posts for further detail.
It's good to hear that you see the sense of staying away for the time being until we can welcome you back.
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presumably, if you pop down this week and twist your ankle, there will be plenty of capacity to treat you
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agreed. Rocky, and (based on World figures) of that 148,000 infections only 2% will be 'critical'.....thats 2960 people that get really ill.
the world figure recovery rate of critical cases is 85%, thats 2516 that will/should recover, meaning, sadly 444 would die.
looking at each days UK numbers...although weve not been getting a figure relating to the number of cases active on any given day, the number of deaths at 444 from my example, isnt a mile away from whats been reported nor from 'world' levels.
its good to see that the actual numbers of new cases and resulting deaths (from previous discovered cases) is falling.
we just need to keep at it...
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no.
however, they are in fear now (arent they) of visitors turning up now the travel radius is wider? whats summer got to do with it, folk will just go if they are able....and the weather is now set fair for the SW isnt it?
my point was that, currently...there is plenty of capacity....which would cope with many twisted ankles, even if you yourself were perpared to grin and bear it.
what a trooper
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Mmmm - not doubting your mental maths Rocky, but I think that would only be true if the entire population had been tested.
148000 out of what ever the total number of tests taken is would affect that figure greatly. But I'll leave it for others to do the maths!
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The numbers won't go down if this sort of thing goes ahead. I think several are planned across the country
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Hmm, try the A390 at any time of day in August. Some of our roads aren't wide enough for 2 cars to pass. 😄
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Latest Cambridge university and PHE study released today estimates R value by region. Believe it or not London value is now reduced to O.4 whilst SW is 0.76, NW 0.73 and Yorkshire and NE 0.80.
However as usual there is some disagreement amongst the experts as to the validity of the model used.
Just been on ITV news. One major reason for the high numbers of infections detected in Barrow, South Lakeland and Lancaster is that they are all in one Hospital Trust that has been mass testing all its staff, patients, their families and care homes since the end of February. They have therefore carried out three times the average number of tests.
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Some of the politicians & Van -tam must live in a different world to the rest of us, as he had not thought about opening c’van / camping sites up. He (Van -tam ) said he had concerns about c’van /tents had confined spaces, some if not most have as much room If not more as small rooms in a house. Plus we don’t tend to confine ourselves to stay indoors only to sleep and then we are with our own household.
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nor me...
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