Diesel / petrol banned by 2040 what do we do then
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Does this mean there won't be any aeroplanes in the sky then. Or are we going to have electric aeroplanes as well.
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Apologies before anyone jumps on me...
7kw/hr
19Gw/hr
Nissan blurb states the power to charge its Leaf from completely drained is 7kw/hr
Still leaves a problem with providing power fast enough. As sales of electric vehicles increase year on year. The rate of expanding the network to charge them will not keep up. There really will be a 'blackout' threat
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Infrastructure provision is going to be the biggest issue the realise that timescale.
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Indeed it is
The Government has 23 years to dig up every road in the uk that has on street parking, every car park in Britain, every motorway service area which will need a lot more charging posts than they currently have, basically, everywhere a vehicle stops for any length of time... then lay cables, install millions of charging posts, install new substations to power this network etc etc etc
Won't happen
Typical of a government to blurt out a new proposal without actually thinking about it or consulting the relevant experts.
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They have already made a start in our area..... there are 2 charging posts in our local IKEA car park ......that holds 600+ cars 🚗
Every little helps.......sorry wrong store 😇
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Just out of interest, does anyone know:-
a) How long does it presently take to charge a 'typical' electric car starting from a flat battery?
b) What is the cost at the charging points seen in the likes of council car parks and Ikea etc? (There are undoubtedly many other locations).
Personally, I don't think I will ever see the changeover to the majority of vehicles being only electric. There are too many non-vehicle issues that need to be overcome. Many of these problems don't yet have a workable solution, I suspect, let alone the will or where-with-all to pay for them. I think it will go the same way as 3D televisions and the way virtual reality headsets seem to be going. Both a bit of an impractical gimmick but seemed a good idea at the time.
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"Or carry a little generator to charge batts"
Petrol or Diesel powered
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Over on the Range Rover Sport forum, an engineer has just posted some calcs. Interesting copy and paste for your pleasure
Diesel specific energy is 13,330 Watt Hour per Kg.
LiPoly specific energy is around 200 Watt Hour per Kg.
Let's assume that a Deisel is 25% efficient and electric is 100%..
13,330/4 = approx 3,000 Wh/kg
That's 15x more power than Batterys per Kg.
Or put it another way to replace a 50liter fuel tank with the equivalent Lipoly you would require:-
50l x 0.8kg/l = 35 kg of fuel.
Equivalent battery would be 520kg in weight...
In truth taking into account electric motors efficiency, the requirement of heating in winter (heating with IC engines uses wast heat, with electric it uses batterys) the extra weight to push along the safety casing for the battery. Etc.
Estimated battery size for replacing 50l of diesel 1,200Kg.
It's a none starter..
Safety.
Put a gallon of petrol into a bucket and throw a match at it, it burns..
Get a large fully charged Lipoly battery hammer a nail through it, on second thoughts look at in on the Web.
The battery discharges all its energy in seconds.
Meanwhile the bucket of petrol is still burning..
Battery lifetimes..
Definition.
Battery looses half of its capacity..1000 charges..
Replacement cost of current batterys £5000 on a 1.5 ton battery £15,000
No battery technology exists that can replace IC engines in the foreseeable future..
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How small, light and cheap do you expect the batteries will become in 23 years time to enable the equivalent range for a medium sized family car or SUV equalling what you can achieve today with a full tank of diesel?
Do you think, in 23 years time, you will be able to recharge those cars to full capacity in the time it currently takes to fill up a tank of diesel? i.e. approx 5 minutes?
Honestly, will the technology be available to plug the car in and expect enough power to transfer from the mains back into the batteries within minutes and not hours?
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The techknowlegdy will never exist to be as good as IC: Even with solar panels built in roof etc which will need to be done: Dont think theyve thought this thru properly: The amount of charging stations for example: they'll need to be outside every other house & shops:
There will be fighting in the streets for them. It is not a viable proposition at the mo: Obviously it needs doing , there's just too many cars now. Ive been say for years the freight etc should go back to trains & Canal boats. We have got to stop burning fossil fuels.
We have reached saturation point. Theyre gunna have to get better public transport infrastructure for sure: & the days of just nipping of in ya car is gone. Statics & pods are the future like it or not:
It's a sad day for sure but necessary: Goodbye Caravan industry:
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Of course not, thats the point.
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Although I probably wont be around by 2040, I would like the Club to protest most strongly about this "Diesel ban". I cant see how electric cars can hope to get anywhere near towing a caravan 250 miles without stopping for hours to recharge. Its ridiculous!
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We have them already they are called hybrids
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Rumour has it that the cigarette packet on which they planned this has been thrown away, so there is much panic, could sense this in Michael Gove's TV. Interview.
As for the age worries,, there are more people over 90 and 100 with driving licenses than ever.
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So this means all vehicles, so I guess we will see the following, electric diggers,dumpers,tractors,combine harvesters,speedboats,jet ski's, all with cables all over the place, methinks a trip hazard so how long before HSE get involved. How long before the no win no fee companies starting banking in claims when loads of claims come in for tripping over the cables. I am sure the readers of CT will be able to add to this never ending list of vehicles to to electrified,!!!!!! Oh just thought how will the armies recharge the tanks,troop carriers,armoured cars etc
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Thanks everyone for your thoughts and comments on this. I've been speaking to Martin, the Technical Manager at the Club, and below are his thoughts on the situation:
Background
· Things have been changing in the automotive industry for some time, with cleaner diesels, smaller petrol and diesel engines, lighter weight construction, hybrids and electric cars, etc. New technologies mean things are evolving rapidly, and issues like the diesel emissions scandal have helped push things on.
· The petrol/diesel new car ban is planned for 2040, in 23 years’ time. With the current pace of change, it’s highly likely that most of the transition to new technologies will happen well ahead of that – perhaps over the next 10-15 years.
· Many manufacturers have already announced plans for electrification of their products (hybrid or fully electric), for example:
o BMW to build new fully electric Mini in Cowley from 2019
o All new Volvo models will be hybrid or electric from 2019
o Half of new Jaguars will be hybrid or electric by 2020
o Porsche expect half their new car sales to be electric by 2023
o Two thirds of new Hondas will be hybrid or electric by 2025
· Remember that we haven’t always embraced diesels for towcar choice. The first time a diesel won the Club’s Towcar of the Year was the 1994 competition - it was a Citroen Xantia 1.9TD VSX (picture below). Coincidentally, that’s 23 years ago, giving a nice symmetry with the 23 years until a diesel ban.
What does this mean for caravanning?
Towcars
o We’re likely to see a steady move towards electric drive (via hybrids, with fully electric cars becoming the norm later on).
o Subject to the various challenges with these being resolved, they can potentially be excellent towcars, with very favourable driving characteristics like high torque and superb refinement.
o Challenges include bringing the cost down to comparable with petrol/diesel models, ensuring adequate range and providing an effective changing infrastructure that utilised green energy.
o Along with the rest of the wider towing industry, we need to encourage manufacturers of these cars to continue to include models with sensible towing limits.
o For an indication of the future, look no further than the Tesla Model X, available today with fully electric drive, 2200kg maximum towing limit and 200 mile range when towing a fair-sized caravan (from independent testing – about 30% down on solo range). It’s expensive, but cost should fall and capability rise for this kind of car over the next decade.
o Diesel, petrol and hybrid cars will continue to be sold for some while yet, and stay in use up until and beyond 2040. We can expect to see gradually increasing restriction on the use of these in urban areas (extending the London LEZ approach), which might include bans or additional access charges.
o As car efficiencies increase and electric vehicles grow in popularity, the current model of Government revenue (based in fuel taxes and an annual Vehicle Excise Duty based on emissions) no longer works. It is hard to see an alternative to some form of mileage-based tax being introduced instead at some stage, to mitigate a loss in government revenue of many billions of pounds per year otherwise. That needs to be applied fairly to new and existing vehicles. Towcars tend to do relatively low annual mileages, and can often avoid roads which are especially busy at peak times, so such an approach may be beneficial.
o Will older diesels and petrols plummet in value? That’s a risk, but it’s worth bearing in mind that the average age at which a car is scrapped in the UK is around 14 years old. That means most of the cars being sold now will have been scrapped before the 2040 ban on new petrol and diesel sales kicks in. However, if consumer demand leads to a significantly more rapid shift to alternative power, or if government policy results in relatively high levels of tax on these vehicles, their residual values could be pushed down more quickly.
Campervans
o These largely share technology with cars, and will (very soon) follow car technology changes....more petrol models and then hybrids and then electric.
o Such changes should keep them largely clear of the urban access restrictions likely to be applied to diesels and larger commercial vehicles.
Motorhomes
o The commercial vehicle technology underpinning this sector is likely to change a bit more slowly than that for cars.
o However, major manufacturers are bringing new technology into the market – hybrid Ford Transits are planned for 2019, for instance.
The Club’s role
· The Club cannot dictate to manufacturers or government what their actions should be, but it can ensure that the interests of Club members and caravanners and motorhomers in general are represented and heard where decisions are being made. We do this through liaison with manufacturers and their trade associations, and participation in Government consultation exercises.
· We also make sure prospective buyers are aware of technology developments and of the new products available which utilise them. We tested our first hybrid towcar several years ago, for instance, and will be testing this technology again next week (w/c 31 July) at our annual Towcar of the Year competition.
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Regardless of how good they become: & i totally agree with the idea of banning these vehicles: I just cant see the time when theres enough charging stations. They'll have to be lined up on every street in the country like parking meters: Extension cables all over the place. Which will cause allsorts of probs on it's own.Vandiism: Imagine the work of laying all the cables. & blocks of flats, How many charging stations will they take ?: I can only see absolute pandamonium: Fighting in the streets. God it'll be like a madmax film:& as for cost, i think the average working man wont afford em. & i'm gunna take a lot of convincing otherwise: Dont matter to me i'll be dead by then, but just my opinion:
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It would be economic suicide and logistically impossible to change the nations new car fleet to full battery powered electric propulsion in 23 years. That is less time than it is taking to build HS2 so everyone, govt included need to take a reality check. According to Autocar magazine the intention is to have electrification of all new cars - that means hybrids are included. there is a world of difference between electrified and full EV cars. It also only refers to cars and vans, specialist vehicles and HGV's are NOT included. The whole anti diesel debate which has lead to this is based on the usual half truths whipped up initially by US anti foreign company attitudes. Does anyone seriously believe had VW been a US company we would have heard of diesel-gate?! The reality is most pollution in cities comes from non transport related sources - for example particulates - which are also usually blamed on diesel are more likely to come from supposedly environmentally friendly and preserve of the middle classes wood burning stoves! You can't make it up.....
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